Hey! Ezra here.
Listen, if you run an ecommerce business, Black Friday is your Super Bowl. It’s the time of year when purchase intent skyrockets and revenue potential hits its peak.
But in recent years, there’s been a BIG shift when it comes to BFCM that most marketers have missed—and it affects the way you should plan out your entire holiday promotion.
So in this post, I’m going to show you:
- Why the entirety of Q4 has become a massive payday for all business types (not just ecom)
- How the 4 “phases” of my Q4 Framework can help you avoid buyer fatigue and capture every shopper type
- And my favorite offer types for driving peak revenue during the holiday season
Q4 Still Rules (But It Isn’t Just About Black Friday Anymore)
Yeah, BFCM is still the anchor weekend…
But all of Q4—from October through early January—can be a full-on revenue generating marathon, and if you’re only planning out a promo calendar for one weekend then you’re missing out on a huge opportunity.
Let’s dig into this a little deeper.
Why Q4 is Bigger than Ever
Looking back at last year, on average our clients generated 30–50% of their annual revenue just in Q4.
(Think about that: nearly half of a company’s yearly revenue condensed into a single season!)
And this wasn’t limited to ecommerce brands. Even software companies and local businesses rode the Q4 wave by leaning into holiday offers.
Shopify’s tracker backs this up:
Last year, Black Friday–Cyber Monday alone generated $11.5 billion in sales on Shopify stores, a 24% increase from the year before even though the broader market felt sluggish.
And that was just one platform.
This year, projections suggest sales could surge even higher, potentially hitting $15+ billion.
Why?
Because shoppers aren’t just buying more often, they’re also buying more per order. The average cart size during BFCM hit $108, well above the standard. That’s the magic of holiday psychology combined with smart bundling and offer design.
Q4 is for Everyone (Not just Ecommerce)
It’s easy to think Q4 is only relevant if you sell consumer products. But the truth is, every business can benefit:
- Ecommerce brands thrive with bundles, tiered discounts, and gifting offers.
- SaaS and digital products perform well with “year-end upgrades” or “bonus months free” promos.
- Even restaurants can get in on the action with holiday gift card pushes, seasonal menu launches, or bundled experiences.
One of our favorite examples?
A local restaurant ran a “holiday feast package” with bundled meals and gift cards—and saw Q4 become their best quarter of the year.
What This Means for You
If you’re behind on your goals for 2025, don’t panic—Q4 is your chance to catch up. (And if you’re on track to hit your targets, you can blow past what you thought was possible.)
But to make the opportunity pay off, you need to go in with a plan.
Too many businesses scramble through November and December with last-minute offers and one-off emails. That’s not a strategy.
The brands that win Q4:
- Treat it like a marathon, not a sprint
- Build momentum in phases
- Create offers that scale with shopper intent
And that’s exactly what I’m covering next.
Core Strategy for Q4: Think Phases, Not Fire Drills
Let’s be honest: Q4 has a way of turning into chaos.
You might start with a plan… but by mid-November, your team is scrambling with last-minute creatives, your inbox is full of “urgent sale emails,” and your ad account looks like a patchwork of random campaigns.
But it doesn’t have to be that way.
The key to a profitable, saner holiday season is to structure your sale into “phases”.
Think of Q4 not as one giant push, but as a series of mini-campaigns that build momentum without burning out your list (or your team).
Why Phases Work
When you break Q4 into phases, 2 things happen:
- You avoid offer fatigue. Instead of shouting the same 20% discount for 8 weeks, you introduce fresh hooks and reasons to buy.
- You capture every shopper type. Planners buy early. Deal hunters buy during BFCM. Procrastinators buy in December. Phases let you serve them all.
The Q4 Phases Framework
Here’s the model we recommend for most brands, regardless of what you sell:
- Phase 0: Prep & Early Testing (Late October–Early November)
This is your “mise en place,” as they say in the restaurant biz: get everything set before the rush. Build your dedicated Q4 landing page, warm up audiences with evergreen holiday ads, and run small-scale traffic tests.
If you’re launching a new product, this is also the perfect window.
- Phase 1: Early Bird Promos (Mid-November)
Launch your first broad sale. Think tiered discounts or bundles designed to drive higher AOV. This phase rewards early planners and warms up your list before the main event.
- Phase 2: Black Friday–Cyber Monday (Late November)
The main stage. Keep your offer simple and strong—ideally your biggest discount of the year.
Run it from Black Friday through the following Thursday to stretch out momentum, and consider layering in doorbusters (scarcity-based flash deals).
- Phase 3: Holiday Shopping Window (December)
Now you’re targeting procrastinators and gifters. Shift messaging to “last chance for delivery” and promote versatile products, gift cards, or stocking stuffers. Add urgency with countdown timers tied to shipping cutoffs.
- Phase 4: Year-End & New Year (Late December–Early January)
After Christmas, traffic spikes again as shoppers treat themselves or buy what they didn’t get. This is a great time to clear inventory, push gift cards, or launch “new year, new you” bundles.
Offers That Drive Each Phase
While you can (and should) keep some consistency across phases, the best results come from layering modifiers:
- Tiered discounts: “Spend $100, get 20% off. Spend $200, get 30% off.”
- Free gifts: Bonus products, gift cards, or digital add-ons.
- Doorbusters: Scarcity-driven daily deals.
- Bundles: Solve a problem or serve a persona to increase cart size.
This isn’t about overwhelming customers with 12 different sales—it’s about pacing out urgency so there’s always a reason to buy.
What’s Coming in Part 2
That’s it for Part 1.
The second half of the post is coming soon, where you’ll see what worked in 2024, including our most effective tactics and creative approaches that you can swipe for 2025.
See you then!
